Azerbaijan's NATO Membership

Significant shifts have occurred in the global geopolitical environment, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine unintentionally strengthening the US-led Western alliance. As Finland and Sweden consider NATO membership, Azerbaijan's future accession to the alliance is strategically significant. Baku's recent actions, including the collapse of the Republic of Artsakh, indicate a willingness to align itself with NATO values, prompting consideration for membership.

The recent conflict can be linked back to Azerbaijan's obstruction of the Lachin Corridor, an essential arterial in the region. Tensions rose as Russian peacekeepers, who had previously been stationed in the region, were diverted to Ukraine, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh unprotected and laying the groundwork for Azerbaijan's military attack. The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, primarily centered around the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh, has been marked by a history of territorial disputes and ethnic tensions. The conflict erupted into a full-scale war in 2020, as Azerbaijan sought to reclaim territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh that had been under Armenian control since the early 1990s. Nagorno-Karabakh, a landlocked region in the South Caucasus, lies within the mountainous terrain of the Lesser Caucasus range. The region is characterized by rugged landscapes, including forests, rivers, and elevated plateaus.Historically, Nagorno-Karabakh has experienced both agricultural and industrial development. The region was known for viticulture, horticulture, and animal husbandry. However, the socio-economic landscape was significantly disrupted by the conflicts in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Infrastructure suffered damage, and economic activities were hampered, leading to a prolonged period of reconstruction. In recent years, there have been efforts to revive and diversify the economy, including initiatives in agriculture, tourism, and small-scale industries.

The population of Nagorno-Karabakh is predominantly Armenian. The region has a rich historical and cultural connection with Armenia, and Armenians make up the majority of the population. However, before the conflicts of the 20th century, the demographics were more diverse. The region has experienced waves of demographic shifts, with displacement and resettlement influencing the ethnic composition. This has contributed to the complex ethnic dynamics that play a significant role in the ongoing political and territorial disputes. The coexistence of different ethnic groups has been a defining aspect of Nagorno-Karabakh's history, influencing its socio-political landscape.

The reasons for the latest conflict can be traced to Azerbaijan's blockade of the Lachin Corridor, a crucial route in the region. Tensions heightened as Russian peacekeepers, traditionally stationed in the area, were diverted to Ukraine, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh vulnerable and setting the stage for Azerbaijan's military operation. The conflict resulted in casualties, with Karabakh authorities reporting at least 200 deaths, while Azerbaijan claimed 192 soldiers killed. A ceasefire on September 20, 2023, initiated talks about the integration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan. However, this move sparked a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the region, driven by fears of an uncertain future under Azerbaijani rule.

The 2020 conflict played a pivotal role in reshaping the territorial dynamics, with Azerbaijan reclaiming territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian forces withdrew from these areas, confined to a smaller part of the region under a Russian-brokered peace deal. The aftermath of the conflict has left a lasting impact on the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. International involvement has further complicated the situation, with Turkey supporting Azerbaijan through cultural ties and advanced military technology. Armenia, historically aligned with Russia, has faced strained relations due to its pivot towards the West. Criticism from Armenia towards Russian peacekeepers and considerations about leaving the CSTO alliance highlights the intricate nature of international relations in the region. In conclusion, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains a complex interplay of historical grievances, recent geopolitical shifts, and international involvement, underscoring the need for a nuanced understanding to address the region's challenges and foster sustainable peace and stability.

One of the primary obstacles to Azerbaijan's NATO membership is the nature of its political system. Azerbaijan is often criticized for not meeting the democratic standards expected by NATO. Issues such as limitations on political freedoms, restrictions on the media, and concerns about human rights violations raise questions about Azerbaijan's commitment to democratic principles, a fundamental criterion for NATO membership. While Azerbaijan has actively contributed to international peacekeeping missions, its regional security situation remains complex. The proximity to conflict zones, such as Syria and Iraq, raises concerns about the potential spillover of instability. NATO may be cautious about admitting a member with immediate security challenges. Azerbaijan's geopolitical significance extends beyond its borders, encompassing energy exports, security partnerships, and a strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. NATO accession could amplify Baku's role in regional stability and security.

France's decision to sell arms to Armenia creates strategic incoherence within NATO, complicating the alliance's objectives. Azerbaijan's NATO membership could mitigate inconsistencies and strengthen the alliance's cohesion. Azerbaijan's NATO membership would contribute to stability and security in the South Caucasus region. This includes potential benefits such as economic ties, energy independence, and the deterrence of common adversaries. A NATO presence in the region may provide a platform for diplomatic negotiations, potentially involving withdrawing Turkish forces from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Such a development could further enhance regional stability.

NATO membership could give security guarantees for the Armenian minority in Karabakh, boosting trust and stability in the region. Azerbaijan joining NATO would not only strengthen the alliance but also provide geopolitical benefits, especially at the expense of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran. Economic ties, energy security, and the control of regional dangers are all potential benefits. Azerbaijan occupies a strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. Its geographical position makes it a key player in regional stability, and an alliance with Azerbaijan provides NATO with enhanced access and influence in the South Caucasus.

Entertaining the possibility of Azerbaijan joining NATO is a wise strategic move for Washington and Brussels. The advantages of enhanced regional stability, security partnerships, and geopolitical influence far outweigh the obstacles. Baku's alignment with NATO values aligns with the broader objectives of the Western alliance, making Azerbaijan a valuable addition to NATO in the ever-evolving global geopolitical landscape.